Moody’s Investors Service says U.S. banks have already written off nearly two-thirds of the real estate loans expected to go sour through 2011.
The credit ratings agency projects banks will incur $744 billion of loan charge-offs between 2008 and 2011. Moody’s analysts say an estimated $476 billion of these losses have already been recognized, leaving $268 billion, or 36 percent, remaining. So far, 68 percent of residential mortgage losses have been accounted for versus 49 percent of bad commercial real estate loans.
The total value of distressed commercial real estate (CRE) in the United States right now is $186.9 billion, including properties in default, foreclosure, and lender REO, according to data from the research firm Real Capital Analytics.
The Transwestern company Delta Associates says this tally represents an increase of 12 percent, or $20.1 billion, since June and means CRE distress has risen back to the level it was in March of this year. But the company says a plateau in the $165-$200 billion range will be the norm for a while.
Is it the making of a double-dip? Clear Captial says no ... at least not until next spring. Read More

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