The unemployment rate will hit 10 percent in the first quarter of next year and it may be 2012 before the 7.2 million lost in the recession have been restored, according to the latest survey of business economists.

The National Association of Business Economics survey of 44 economists found widespread agreement that the recession is over and the economy has started growing again.

But more than half the economists surveyed don’t expect the lost jobs to be recovered until 2012 and two-fifths say it will take even longer. Unemployment is likely to peak at 10 percent before falling to 9.5 percent by the end of next year.

The high unemployment rate will continue to weigh on the economy, the survey found, according to news reports. However, it will also dampen inflation, which is expected to remain low.

The NABE survey, conducted in September, forecast the economy growing at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the second half, though GDP for the entire year is expected to contract 2.5 percent. Next year, the economy should grow 2.6 percent, the economists predicted.

In view of the sluggish recovery and high unemployment, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the benchmark overnight federal funds rate at the current level of virtually zero and raise it next year to about the 1 percent level.

The housing market is expected to hit bottom this year, allowing housing prices to gain 2 percent next year. This will enable the housing market to contribute to economic growth once again.

However, consumer spending is expected to remain weak due to the sluggish labor market and the impact of lost equity in housing and stocks.