California-based CoreLogic, a provider of residential mortgage risk management, today released its quarterly forecast and the impacts these risks could have on local market economies. The company released the report through its quarterly publication, Core Mortgage Risk Monitor.
The Core Mortgage Risk (CMR) Index forecasts the associated risk of residential mortgage loan delinquencies, and as the index increases, so does the potential for problematic economic results. The good news is that the CMR Index for the fourth quarter 2006 finished off the year with comparably low risk in relation to the three previous years. Low unemployment rates were strong contributors to the low risks associated with 2006. Maintaining a job and steady income are huge factors in a person’s loan performance.

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Although reports were positive overall, some markets reported unemployment rates well above the national average, causing them to be considered high risk. Additionally, some markets,—namely Detroit, Youngstown, and Toldeo—are facing substantial house price depreciation, also earning them a high risk rating. For its ninth consecutive quarter, fraud and collateral risk collectively has been a component of the CMR Index that continues to rise. Foreclosures remained higher in 2006 than in several years past. CoreLogic’s previous models have indicated that a 5-percent steep in foreclosure rates most often results in a 20-percent increase in fraud. House price appreciation increased to slightly more than 6 percent in the fourth quarter, although markets like Detroit and Indianapolis, both considered high risk, still experienced declining prices. %{=font-weight: bold;} Top 10 Highest Risk Markets*:                              %                                                                                        {=font-weight: bold;} Memphis, TN                                                                                Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, MI                                                     Youngstown-Warren-Boardman,OH-PA                                  Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI                                               Indianapolis-Carmel, IN                                                            Toledo, OH                                                                                   

Dayton, OH                                                                                   
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX                                                 
Denver-Aurora, CO                                                                   
Kansas City, MO-KS                                                                   
*Among the Largest 100 Markets
%{=font-weight: bold;}Bottom 10 Lowest Risk Markets*:
%%{=font-weight: bold;}%%{=font-weight: bold;}%
Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano-Deerfield, FL                                    
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL                                     
Jacksonville, FL                                                                         
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ                                                 
Richmond, VA                                                                            
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL                                                            
Washington D.C.-Arlington-Alexandria-VA, MD, WV          
Bethesda-Gaithersburg-Frederick, MD                                   
Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL                                               
Honolulu, HI                                                                               
*Among the Largest 100 Markets
Risks are assessed by house prices in the market, unemployment rates in the area, average wages, and fraud, as well as collateral risk.
For more information, visit www.corelogic.com.