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Mortgage Rates: How Low Can They Go?

Credit conditions may be tight, but for those who do qualify for a new home loan, the cost of borrowing has never been lower.

Data released Thursday by Freddie Mac shows the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage edged down to 3.88 percent (0.8 point) for the week ending January 19, to hit a new all-time low.

The previous record low for the 30-year rate was 3.89 percent, set just the week prior. Last year at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was averaging 4.74 percent. It’s now come in below the 4.00 percent mark for seven consecutive weeks.

The 15-year fixed-mortgage rate was the only product included in Freddie Mac’s regular weekly survey to show upward movement, albeit by only one basis point. The

15-year rate rose from 3.16 percent last week to 3.17 percent (0.8 point) this week. A year ago, it was averaging 4.05 percent.

The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) is now averaging 2.82 percent (0.7 point). That reading matches last week’s but is well below the year-ago average of 3.69 percent.

The average rate for a 1-year ARM came in at 2.74 percent (0.6 point) this week, down from 2.76 percent last week. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM was at 3.25 percent.

On the whole, Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, described mortgage rates as “nearly unchanged” this week in lieu of a mixed bag of economic data reports.

He points to retail sales on the consumer front, which edged up only 0.1 percent in December, which contrasts the Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index as it continued to climb in January to the highest reading since February 2011.

“On the business side, industrial production rose 0.4 percent in December, slightly below the market consensus forecast, and the core producer price index rose faster than market expectations,” Nothaft noted.

The home construction sector also experienced positive indicators, Nothaft explained, with builder confidence rising for the fourth consecutive month in January to its highest level since June 2007.


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