Market Studies

More bank professionals expect mortgage delinquencies to decline over the second half of this year than to than to stay the same, according to a survey released by FICO. This is the first time in the quarterly survey's history the number of professionals expecting mortgage delinquencies to decline outpaced those who expect it to remain the same. Forty-seven percent anticipate a decrease in mortgage delinquencies over the last two quarters of the year compared to 41 percent who delinquencies to remain the same.

According to Consumer Reports Index, Americans are facing significantly more financial troubles than in June. One index, the Trouble Tracker, climbed more than five points to 39.2 in July, ""an increase that was entirely fueled by an epic 23.3-point jump among those households earning $100,000 or more,"" the organization said. The tracker measures the proportion of consumers that have faced difficulties and the number of negative events they have encountered. Negative events include a missed mortgage payment and home foreclosure.

The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Improving Markets Index (IMI) continued to elude any trends in July, slipping a bit after last month's increase. According to the association, a total of 255 metro areas made the list for July, down from 263 in June. The index improved for seven straight months before declining in April and May--only to turn around again at the start of summer. While July's report showed a decline month-over-month, the number of markets on the index was more than triple that of July 2012.

Fewer than 2 million homes remain in shadow inventory as of April, CoreLogic reported Tuesday. This puts shadow inventory at a supply of 5.3 months and represents an 18 percent year-over-year decrease. The data provider also reported shadow inventory is 34 percent lower than the 2010 peak of 3 million. Currently, serious delinquencies make up the bulk of shadow inventory. Out of the total for shadow inventory, about 890,000 are serious delinquencies.

The number of job openings edged up in May, increasing for the for the first time since February as hirings continued to improve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). According to the JOLTS, report, the number of persons unemployed for each job opening in May remained at April's level of 3.07 but was down from 3.09 in February.

Examining data from Multiple Listing Services in 34 cities across the nation, Movoto found year-over-year declines in June's inventory in 32 of the 38 cities it tracks. The most drastic declines took place in Sacramento (-54.5 percent), Detroit (-47.1 percent), and Boston (-46.7 percent). Over the same time period, price per square foot increased in all but two of the cities Movoto observes. The exceptions were New Orleans (-2.2 percent) and Chicago (-3.2 percent).

According to Fannie Mae's latest National Housing Survey, 57 percent of consumers expect prices will continue to rise in the next 12 months--a survey high. The average price change expectation was 3.8 percent, a slight drop from May's high of 3.9 percent. More notable was the pickup in mortgage rate expectations. The number of consumers expecting rates will rise over the next 12 months spiked 11 percentage points to 57 percent, another survey high. Only 4 percent said they expect rates will drop.

In April alone, nearly 107,000 loans were refinanced through the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), up from 99,000 in March, according to data FHFA. April's figure raises the total since the program's 2009 inception to 2.56 million. The program also continued to help a large share of underwater borrowers. From January to April, 44 percent of GSE borrowers who refinanced under the program had loan-to-value ratios greater than 105 percent.

Over the last year, rents for new leases grew at an annual pace of 3.1 percent following a slowdown in the previous quarter. In the first quarter of this year, annual rents were up by just 2.6 percent, marking the weakest growth since late 2010, according to MPF Research. At the same time, the national apartment occupancy rate also moved higher, increasing to 95.3 percent from 94.9 percent in previous quarter.

Delinquencies saw the steepest year-to-date drop since 2002 in May as new problem loan rates inched toward pre-crisis lows, according to Lender Processing Services' (LPS) Mortgage Monitor report released Monday. Since the end of December 2012, the delinquency rate has fallen by more than 15 percent to 6.08 percent in May. ""In large part, this is due to the continuing decline in new problem loans -- as fewer problem loans are coming into the system, the existing inventories are working their way through the pipeline,"" he added. LPS also reported the national equity rate is at 14.7 percent, which translates into 7.3 million loans and represents a 47 percent annual decrease.