Market Studies

Double-digit price increases in some markets hard-hit by the housing crisis prompt the question, are we experiencing another housing bubble? While several factors are combining to push prices up right now, CoreLogic analysts say we are not headed into anther bubble. During the bubble leading to the recent housing crisis, real home prices increased 62 percent. When the bubble burst, prices fell 47 percent, according to CoreLogic.

After staging a turnaround last year, the housing market is continuing on the road to stabilization in 2013, RE/MAX said in its National Housing Report for May. Of the 52 metros surveyed last month, 45 reported higher sales than May 2012, with 30 posting double-digit gains. For all homes sold in May, the median price was $185,000, a 4.2 percent gain over April and a 10.8 percent increase over May 2012. Reduced inventory continues to be a concern, however, though recent monthly changes have been promising.

Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding decreased for the first time in five quarters during the first quarter of this year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The 0.2 percent decline, which translated to $4.9 billion, left the nation's total commercial and multifamily mortgage debt at $2.41 trillion at the end of the quarter.

The increase in mortgage rates coupled with rising home prices may dampen demand, but the recent upward movement in rates is not enough to make housing unaffordable to median income earners, according to Freddie Mac's economic and housing outlook for June. In fact, the GSE's analysis showed mortgage rates would have to climb to nearly 7 percent before a median priced home is no longer affordable to median income earners in most parts of the country.

From new regulations to increasing fines, financial institutions--both large and small--reported feeling more squeezed by compliance and risk management pressures since the start of the year, according to survey results from Wolters Kluwer Financial Services. In January, the Indicator began with a baseline score of 100 after the company surveyed 400 banks and credit unions. After surveying 430 similar institutions in April, Wolters Kluwer Financial Services reported a score of 136.

One day after the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the sharpest boost in builder confidence in seven years, the Census Bureau and HUD reported single-family starts were essentially flat in May, increasing just 0.3 percent. The Census/HUD report Tuesday showed total starts improved 6.8 percent in May, while total permits fell 3.1 percent.

The steady influx of out-of-state transplants, along with stronger than average employment growth, should keep the housing and apartment sectors in Texas strong, a report from the Dallas Federal Reserve concluded. Using data from the Census Bureau, the report authors D'Ann Petersen and Christina Daly pointed out that Texas is the No. 1 state for domestic in-migration. From July 2011 to July 2012, the Long Star state saw a net 140,888 new arrivals when excluding births or international migration.

Gains in home prices and sales surged in May, while inventory increased for the second straight month, according to Redfin. In May, home prices surged 17.4 percent year-over-year, while prices in all 19 markets tracked showed yearly gains. At the same time, home sales climbed by 15.8 percent from April to May, reaching their highest level since January 2010. Although for-sale housing inventory decreased 21.9 percent year-over-year, Redfin reported inventory inched up by 4.3 percent from April to May.

As the industry continues to adapt to new regulations and best practices, electronic recording--eRecording--is taking hold as a way to streamline the records process and free up resources at lending and servicing offices, according to Palm Harbor, Florida-based Nationwide Title Clearing, Inc. The volume of documents recorded electronically by NTC over the past year has grown from 10 percent to 45 percent. According to NTC, 840 jurisdictions have approved eRecording for mortgage documents thus far.

The risk of default for more recently originated mortgages is close to levels seen 10 years ago, according to the findings from the University Financial Associates (UFA) of Ann Arbor, Michigan. In the second quarter of this year, the UFA Default Risk Index stood at 106, up from 97 in the previous quarter. Between 2006 and 2008, the index peaked well above 200. ""These readings on the Index are the lowest in almost 10 years, but we may not be able to declare the mortgage crisis over yet,"" said Dennis Capozza, business professor at the University of Michigan and a founding principal of UFA.