Google+
  • Ocwen3.89+0.03 +0.78%
  • Zillow41.25+0.06 +0.15%
  • Trulia4.01+0.33 +8.97%
  • NationStar19.65-0.06 -0.30%
  • CoreLogic48.83+0.24 +0.49%
  • RE/MAX67.00+0.05 +0.07%
  • Fannie Mae3.10+0.03 +0.98%
  • Freddie Mac3.03+0.04 +1.34%
  • Wells Fargo54.92+1.17 +2.18%
  • CitiMortgage73.53+0.65 +0.89%
  • Bank of America27.17+0.59 +2.22%
  • Fidelity National Financial35.70+0.11 +0.31%
  • First American50.45-0.20 -0.39%
  • Black Knight Financial Services43.05-0.55 -1.26%
  • AUDUSD=X0.7814-0.0063 -0.7960%
  • USDJPY=X113.4790+0.9220 +0.8191%
Home | Headlines | Ask the Economist: Robert Dietz, Ph.D.
Print This Post Print This Post

Ask the Economist: Robert Dietz, Ph.D.

DSN-story (3)Robert Dietz, Ph.D., is Chief Economist and SVP for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), where his responsibilities include housing market analysis, forecasting and industry surveys, and policy research. Prior to joining NAHB in 2005, Dietz worked as an economist for the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, where he was the committee’s real estate expert. He has testified before Congress and published academic research on housing, economic, and tax issues.

In December, your housing market index indicated that builder confidence was at its highest level in more than 11 years. What is the significance of high builder confidence for the housing market?

According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builders experienced a surge of market optimism following the election. As you noted, the index jumped significantly, rising from 63 to 70 in December on the hope of more efficient regulatory policy. And higher market confidence will translate into more building and more inventory in 2017.

The industry has a number of supply-side challenges that are limiting the growth rate for home building. One of the key concerns is the rise in regulatory burdens that adds to the baseline cost of a home. Earlier this year, NAHB released a paper that estimated that regulatory costs associated with land development and residential construction have increased 29 percent over the last five years and make up nearly a quarter of a home’s final sales price.

Builders nationwide expect the election results to result in a reduction of these costs, enabling more construction, more housing inventory and a reduction in cost burdens for buyers and renters alike.

What other factors have been holding builder confidence back in the last year or so?

Besides regulatory costs, the most important challenges for home building have been on the supply side of the market. Demand is positive, rates are low, and jobs gains continue. But the industry’s infrastructure was much reduced by the Great Recession. And in particular, there are simply not enough workers and building lots in the pipeline to allow home building to grow faster in what is a tight inventory environment. The industry is adding workers, more than 120,000 over the last 12 months, and lots are coming (64 percent of builders report low or very low lot supplies), but it will take some time.

Some analysts have pointed to new construction as the key to overcoming the single-family inventory shortage. What needs to happen in order for new single-family construction to pick up?

Pick up is the key phrasing. We expect single-family construction to grow 10 percent next year. That’s a positive growth rate, but it is below what is necessary to offset the shortage of both new and existing homes. What’s needed is an industry-wide effort (builders, other housing stakeholders, community colleges, and high schools) to attract the next generation of construction workers.

And local governments, in coordination with state and federal rulemaking, need to examine the interaction between policies that limit or increase the cost of land development and local housing affordability challenges. Many large metros in the U.S., places where job growth is strong and wages are high, also suffer from housing affordability problems. The answer is simple—more housing supply. Getting the right policies is more complicated, but there is a strong agreement among housing economists that land use policies are a key problem for housing affordability.

Do you think price appreciation will slow or will demand keep upward pressure on prices?

The rise in interest rates is the most important challenge on the demand-side of the market. I expect rising rates to diminish price appreciation for housing, but for positive growth to continue due to lack of inventory.

However, it is important to keep in mind two things. First, rates are rising because the labor market is tight and unemployment is low. Further, most economists have increased their growth expectations for the next few years. To that extent, rising rates reflect a more positive economic environment, and that is good for housing demand.

Second, the primary challenge for most homebuyers, and especially for renting members of Generation Y, is accumulating sufficient savings for a downpayment to purchase a home. That remains true in today’s tightening rate environment, and highlights the importance of programs like FHA-backed mortgages.

We just completed the best year for home sales in a decade. What needs to happen in order for sales to have an even better year in 2017?

Well, the easy answer is we need more GDP and job growth. One potential source of that growth is clearly residential construction. Home building and remodeling currently make up about 3.5 percent of GDP. To get back to a sustainable level, based on population growth and the need to replace older housing, I’d like to see that share grow back to 5 percent. That would mean jobs and economic benefits. And more inventory would mean higher levels of both new and existing home sales

About Author: Mirasha Brown

Profile photo of Mirasha Brown

291 comments

  1. Pingback: 4cyn5et4m5t94c5t9m4vn54cx65

  2. Pingback: http://falschgeldkaufen.blogspot.com/2017/01/wo-kann-ich-falschgeld-kaufen.html

  3. Pingback: دانلود شهرزاد قسمت نهم فصل دوم

  4. Pingback: دانلود شهرزاد قسمت دوازدهم فصل دوم

  5. Pingback: دانلود شهرزاد قسمت هفتم فصل دوم

  6. Pingback: دانلود شهرزاد قسمت هشتم فصل دوم

  7. Pingback: قیمت پنجره

  8. Pingback: porn

  9. Pingback: دانلود قسمت هفدهم عاشقانه

  10. Pingback: دانلود قسمت دوازدهم عاشقانه

  11. Pingback: دانلود قسمت ششم فصل دوم شهرزاد

  12. Pingback: April O'Neil

  13. Pingback: دانلود قسمت سیزده عاشقانه

  14. Pingback: Marley Brinx

  15. Pingback: Michelle Martinez

  16. Pingback: Elsa Jean

  17. Pingback: Jada Stevens

  18. Pingback: Peta Jensen

  19. Pingback: دانلود شهرزاد قسمت هفتم فصل دوم

  20. Pingback: Rachel Starr

  21. Pingback: lesbian porn xxx

  22. Pingback: Free Stuff Worldwide

  23. Pingback: Paleo Diet

  24. Pingback: Scissor lift repair miami

  25. Pingback: click here

  26. Pingback: online movie

  27. Pingback: دانلود قسمت 12 عاشقانه

  28. Pingback: پنجره

  29. Pingback: Hundeskove

  30. Pingback: Loyola College for Sale by CollegeDunia

  31. Pingback: دانلود قسمت دوازدهم عاشقانه

  32. Pingback: دانلود قسمت پنجم شهرزاد دوم

  33. Pingback: دانلود قسمت 13 عاشقانه

  34. Pingback: دانلود قسمت اول شهرزاد دوم

  35. Pingback: how to bypass windows 7 password

  36. Pingback: Rolland

  37. Pingback: videos porno

  38. Pingback: No NEET required

  39. Pingback: videos porno

  40. Pingback: porno gratis

  41. Pingback: porno gratis

  42. Pingback: porno

  43. Pingback: porno gratis

  44. Pingback: porno

  45. Pingback: porno

  46. Pingback: porno

  47. Pingback: دانلود قسمت هفده عاشقانه

  48. Pingback: پنجره ضد سرقت ترک

  49. Pingback: قیمت پنجره دوجداره

  50. Pingback: ساخت پنجره دو سه جداره

  51. Pingback: پنجره دوجداره وین تک

  52. Pingback: Acne Facial Treatments Weston

  53. Pingback: Facial Spa Services Coral Springs

  54. Pingback: Acne Facial Treatments Pembroke Pines

  55. Pingback: پنجره

  56. Pingback: دانلود قسمت پنجم شهرزاد

  57. Pingback: casino games australia

  58. Pingback: دانلود قسمت ششم شهرزاد

  59. Pingback: fuck

  60. Pingback: search engines for cheap hotels

  61. Pingback: Roof Repair Long Island

  62. Pingback: Gaming blog

  63. Pingback: buy zynga poker chips

  64. Pingback: visitez le site

  65. Pingback: jake burgess berlin ct

  66. Pingback: sale LED Recessed lights

  67. Pingback: پنجره

  68. Pingback: Bandar Judi

  69. Pingback: bitcoin trading

  70. Pingback: bitcoin trading

  71. Pingback: bitcoin trading

  72. Pingback: CB radio Sklep

  73. Pingback: coin-banks review

  74. Pingback: coin-banks cryptocurrency

  75. Pingback: DraftKings DFS

  76. Pingback: Porn World

  77. Pingback: bitcoin trading

  78. Pingback: rookie baseball card collection

  79. Pingback: nicocontrol funciona

  80. Pingback: sp�cialiste

  81. Pingback: دانلود قسمت هشتم شهرزاد

  82. Pingback: anime series

  83. Pingback: vpm

  84. Pingback: unlimited clash royale gems

  85. Pingback: دانلود سریال شهرزاد قسمت 15

  86. Pingback: دانلود شهرزاد قسمت سیزده 13

  87. Pingback: دانلود شهرزاد 13

  88. Pingback: Accounting firms in chicago

  89. Pingback: Strasbourg tourist guide

  90. Pingback: ΤΣΑΝΤΕΣ TRUSSARDI

  91. Pingback: vpn

  92. Pingback: Social Media Marketing

  93. Pingback: Music

  94. Pingback: http://

  95. Pingback: blazing key

  96. Pingback: 16 دانلود شهرزاد

  97. Pingback: air conditioner repair

  98. Pingback: دانلود سریال شهرزاد قسمت 16

  99. Pingback: Roofing Contractors Long Island

  100. Pingback: Arlene

  101. Pingback: دانلود عالیجناب قسمت اول

  102. Pingback: دانلود سریال عالیجناب قسمت اول 1

  103. Pingback: belly fat

  104. Pingback: دانلود عالیجناب دوم

  105. Pingback: game

  106. Pingback: Your Domain Name

  107. Pingback: political polls twitter

  108. Pingback: قیمت پنجره دوجداره در ایران

  109. Pingback: پنجره ضد سرقت

  110. Pingback: Atlanta muralist

  111. Pingback: شرکت تولیدی پنجره دوجداره

  112. Pingback: فروش توری

  113. Pingback: آموزش پنجره دوجداره

  114. Pingback: Upholstery Cleaning copperas cove TX

  115. Pingback: taylormade m1 driver

  116. Pingback: Boxspringbett kaufen

  117. Pingback: forex news

  118. Pingback: en visitant le site

  119. Pingback: Limos

  120. Pingback: free delivery codes

  121. Pingback: دانلود فیلم سریال ایرانی

  122. Pingback: دانلود فیلم با کیفیت

  123. Pingback: Peppa Pig

  124. Pingback: sell home

  125. Pingback: Bacillus Anthracis Treatment

  126. Pingback: PPC UK

  127. Pingback: دانلود فیلم ایرانی

  128. Pingback: how to buy bitcoins

  129. Pingback: پنجره دوجداره

  130. Pingback: درب یو پی وی سی

  131. Pingback: پنجره

  132. Pingback: for kids

  133. Pingback: Puppy

  134. Pingback: پنجره دوجداره

  135. Pingback: قیمت پنجره دوجداره

  136. Pingback: پنجره

  137. Pingback: دانلود فیلم

  138. Pingback: پنجره دوجداره

  139. Pingback: اموزش ساخت پنجره دوجداره

  140. Pingback: پنجره

  141. Pingback: https://myspace.com/jorge.davidson

  142. Pingback: IELTS centre in Karachi

  143. Pingback: 2 week diet system

  144. Pingback: instagram turbanli porn

  145. Pingback: motorhome hire

  146. Pingback: buy legal weed online cheap

  147. Pingback: judi slot online android

  148. Pingback: Refresher training

  149. Pingback: garden bridges new york

  150. Pingback: grafisch.LinkUpdate.nl

  151. Pingback: walmartone login

  152. Pingback: download gaple game

  153. Pingback: https://trello.com/jamesstephenson23

  154. Pingback: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bld2NoB1hBI

  155. Pingback: fixed shower head

  156. Pingback: klinik raden saleh,

  157. Pingback: buy proxies

  158. Pingback: ed sheeran concert

  159. Pingback: iron spindles

  160. Pingback: دانلود

  161. Pingback: فیلم اکسیدان

  162. Pingback: window

  163. Pingback: window price

  164. Pingback: دانلود

  165. Pingback: Yakima Seo

  166. Pingback: plumber

  167. Pingback: google hd porn

  168. Pingback: top article

  169. Pingback: Nursery Rhymes

  170. Pingback: peppa pig

  171. Pingback: پنجره

  172. Pingback: (apple reseller program)

  173. Pingback: پنجره

  174. Pingback: دانلود

  175. Pingback: emergency plumbers

  176. Pingback: Yakima Seo

  177. Pingback: garden bridges

  178. Pingback: Arnoldo

  179. Pingback: agataukert.com

  180. Pingback: http://ceri.civnet.org/Home/ViewBook/41

  181. Pingback: hot pants

  182. Pingback: video blog

  183. Pingback: Online Slot Casino Malaysia

  184. Pingback: bitcoin

  185. Pingback: For kids

  186. Pingback: art

  187. Pingback: haircuts for men

  188. Pingback: Nikon d5200 Price in india hyderabad

  189. Pingback: San Bernardino CA Low cost Home Remodeling contractor

  190. Pingback: maintenance

  191. Pingback: Web Design

  192. Pingback: kitchen tools

  193. Pingback: دانلود فیلم

  194. Pingback: stainless steel chef

  195. Pingback: best casinos online

  196. Pingback: karajupvc

  197. Pingback: We Buy Houses Cash

  198. Pingback: دانلود سریال

  199. Pingback: Test Bank

  200. Pingback: download

  201. Pingback: download

  202. Pingback: download

  203. Pingback: دانلود

  204. Pingback: garden bridges Chicago

  205. Pingback: Bad Credit Remortgages

  206. Pingback: jacksonville seo firm

  207. Pingback: premium wordpress themes for real estate

  208. Pingback: More here

  209. Pingback: home maker on the edge

  210. Pingback: watch movies online

  211. Pingback: Peppa Pig

  212. Pingback: Kardashian

  213. Pingback: Rancho Cucamonga commercial air conditioner repair

  214. Pingback: Easiest Way To Make Money

  215. Pingback: BADKIZ Hothae MV

  216. Pingback: personalberatung

  217. Pingback: buy hacklink google

  218. Pingback: how to clean a vape pen

  219. Pingback: how to get rid of blackheads on nose

  220. Pingback: Elvis Presley Entertainers

  221. Pingback: دانلود فیلم نهنگ عنبر 2

  222. Pingback: buy cheap hacklinks

  223. Pingback: vehicle shippers

  224. Pingback: Judi Togel

  225. Pingback: chegg textbook solutions review

  226. Pingback: Judi Togel

  227. Pingback: https://storify.com/jimstephenson20/followers

  228. Pingback: https://www.behance.net/infob0324f42/followers

  229. Pingback: payday loans

  230. Pingback: ship car overseas

  231. Pingback: pink all sport socks

  232. Pingback: gym

  233. Pingback: love compatibility by date of birth for free

  234. Pingback: Discover More

  235. Pingback: headhunting

  236. Pingback: دانلود فیلم اینه بغل

  237. Pingback: دانلود فیلم دوبله شده

  238. Pingback: دانلود فیلم نهنگ عنبر 2

  239. Pingback: High chair cover

  240. Pingback: virgin sex

  241. Pingback: music

  242. Pingback: Breastfeeding scarf

  243. Pingback: baby shower gift

  244. Pingback: Vancouver BC airport shuttle Northstarlimos

  245. Pingback: real caller android

  246. Pingback: free mobile porn

  247. Pingback: SkinAlley

  248. Pingback: news

  249. Pingback: Arena Hijau

  250. Pingback: Schluesseldienst

  251. Pingback: Pelatih Judi Bola

  252. Pingback: Deal Feed

  253. Pingback: maxima investments

  254. Pingback: porn movie

  255. Pingback: Continued

  256. Pingback: pornmd com

  257. Pingback: Ngobrol Sepakbola

  258. Pingback: my site check here

  259. Pingback: دانلود فیلم نهنگ عنبر

  260. Pingback: Segala Olahraga

  261. Pingback: دانلود موزیک

  262. Pingback: پنجره دوجداره

  263. Pingback: buy hacklinks

  264. Pingback: ΑΘΗΝΑ ΞΕΝΟΔΟΧΕΙΑ ΚΡΑΤΗΣΕΙΣ

  265. Pingback: buy hacklinks

  266. Pingback: pirater un compte facebook

  267. Pingback: link

  268. Pingback: ΚΟΥΠΟΝΙ ΣΤΟΙΧΗΜΑ

  269. Pingback: USAA Bank

  270. Pingback: Teletubbies Finger Family

  271. Pingback: 2 فیلم نهنگ عنبر

  272. Pingback: corporate gifts

  273. Pingback: zodiac birth chart compatibility

  274. Pingback: Oddsmonkey

  275. Pingback: adam and eve toys

  276. Pingback: Oddsmonkey

  277. Pingback: Oddsmonkey

  278. Pingback: Oddsmonkey

  279. Pingback: Oddsmonkey

  280. Pingback: Oddsmonkey

  281. Pingback: large stainless steel

  282. Pingback: consumerhealthdigest.com/female-enhancement-products/zenofem-libido-enhancer.html

  283. Pingback: somulin

  284. Pingback: envisionsolutionsnow.com/omega-xl-review/

  285. Pingback: christmas 2017 coupon codes

  286. Pingback: 1 btc to usd

  287. Pingback: baby shower gift

  288. Pingback: Graphic

  289. Pingback: smart glass

  290. Pingback: Hakukoneoptimointi Espoo

  291. Pingback: http://bit.ly/shane-perry-marketing

Leave a Reply

Scroll To Top