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Default Data After the Great Recession

A new JPMorgan Chase report examines the effects of mortgage modification programs in the aftermath of the Great Recession. How much difference did these programs make, and what can they tell us about the borrowers who made use of them?

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Risk of Default Jumps in Q1, Q2

Overall default risk is up, according to an index released on Tuesday. Up 25 points over fall 2016’s numbers, risk of default is rising that’s to higher mortgage rates and tightening monetary conditions. The risk will likely continue its upward climb too, especially if the Federal Reserve raises rates again—as expected—later on in the year. According to the report, investors and lenders can expect today’s loans to hold a 6 percent higher risk of default than loans of the 1990s.

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Mortgage Default Risk is on the Rise

On Thursday, VantageScore Solutions, LLC and TransUnion released the VantageScore Default Risk Index (DRI) for Q4 2016. According to the DRI, when it comes to default risk, mortgages pose a lower threat than auto loans, student loans, and bankcards with the DRI for these four categories came in at 85.4 (mortgage) , 89.3 (auto), 90.0 (student loans), and 96.8 (bankcards) respectively. Despite the lower default risk compared to other debt categories, mortgage risk is up quarter-over-quarter.

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Non-foreclosure Solutions Remain Strong

New data shows that 30,000 permanent loan modifications and 95,000 non-foreclosure solutions were completed for the month of February. The month saw only about 22,000 foreclosure sales. Around 90 percent of families that had a rate-resetting loan modification for the month avoided foreclosure.

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Mortgage Defaults Climb Slightly

mortgage default rates are up one basis point from February to .75 percent, a one-year high. Year-over-year, the mortgage default rate dropped from .77 percent, while the bank card default rate increased year over year. Of the five major cities covered by the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices (New York, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, and Miami), New York and Chicago posted month-over-month increases in the Index level, while Dallas, Los Angeles, and Miami posted month-over-month decreases in defaults.

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