Tag Archives: Double Dip

Clear Capital sees signs of market stability as we move into the summer months. New data released Thursday by the company shows that U.S. home prices continue to fall, but the 2.3 percent drop recorded for the three months ending in May was half the decline seen in the previous month's report. Clear Capital says the median price paid for distressed properties has started to rise, indicating the REO market is seeing increased activity toward the upper end of the price range and helping to rein in the depreciating trend of the past several months.

While a number of closely-watched home price indices show national readings have slipped into a double-dip, Altos Research says it's come and gone. The firm notes that the latest Case-Shiller findings declaring a new post-recession low are based on data through the end of March. Since that time, Altos has recorded a steady uptick in prices for both major metros and mid-city markets across the country. The firm expects to see a rising and falling pattern for several years and believes the double-dip is really just the start of the next housing cycle.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index confirmed a double-dip in home prices across much of the country as Standard & Poor's national reading fell another 4.2 percent during the first quarter. One economist notes that prices have now fallen by more than they did during the Great Depression. On that occasion, the peak in home prices was not regained for 19 years. The widespread view is that with over a quarter of all mortgages underwater and 6.3 million homeowners either delinquent or in foreclosure, home prices have not yet hit bottom.

Data released Tuesday morning by Standard & Poor's show that the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index declined by 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2011, after having fallen 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010. The national reading hit a new recession low with the first quarter's data and posted an annual decline of 5.1 percent versus the first quarter of 2010. Nationally, home prices are back to their mid-2002 levels. Officials from S&P note that this month's report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation.

A new study conducted by Trulia and RealtyTrac found that 56 percent of U.S. renters and 47 percent of current homeowners are at least ""somewhat likely"" to purchase a foreclosed home. Along with having some concerns about hidden costs and still-declining home values, many potential buyers expect to save money if they buy a foreclosure. On average, survey respondents said they would expect to pay 38 percent less for a foreclosed home than a similar home that was not in foreclosure - not too far above today's average discount of 36 percent.

The national home price index from Clear Capital has officially entered double-dip territory. The company says data through the end of April has pushed its reading of national home prices 0.7 percent below the prior low recorded in March 2009, as markets have become saturated with bank-owned properties. Clear Capital's report shows prices have fallen 11.5 percent over the previous nine-month period. A rate of decline this rapid has not been seen since 2008.

With all the news of still-declining home prices, most buyers are keeping their feet firmly planted on the sidelines unless they're sure they're getting a bargain. At the same time agents and banks are battling (mis)perceptions in their local markets, where property values may not be on such a slippery slope. Add to the equation a distressed property, and finding an agreeable short sale price while still covering enough of the mortgage debt to win over the lender can be a challenge. It's a nasty tug-of-war, with neither buyers or sellers feeling like they're gaining any ground.

Almost half of the 111 economists and real estate experts polled this month by MacroMarkets are forecasting a double-dip in home prices to happen this year, and not a single panelist expects property values to recover to the pre-bubble trend for at least the next five years. MacroMarkets was founded by Robert Shiller, namesake of the closely-watched Case-Shiller Home Price Index. He says the deteriorating outlook among panel members has been influenced by the unabated foreclosure crisis and persistently weak market fundamentals.

Radar Logic's 25-metro-area RPX Composite price slumped to its lowest value last week since its peak in June 2007. Based on data from home sales that closed during the 28 days ending January 3, 2011, the value was at $183.18 per square foot. That's 34 percent lower than the 2007 peak value of $278. The company says last week's reading is lower than the price for any other date since May 14, 2003.

The latest Case-Shiller figures released by S&P Tuesday signal home prices across the United States continue to weaken. Based on data through November 2010, the 10-city composite of the closely watched gauge was down 0.4 percent and the 20-city composite fell 1.6 percent from their November 2009 levels. Home prices fell in 19 of 20 major metros on a month-to-month basis. S&P's analysts say a double-dip in home prices could be confirmed before spring.