Tag Archives: GDP

Housing continues to be a bright spot in the economy, contributing positively to GDP. In fact, Fannie Mae cited the sector as the most likely source of upside to our forecast in its April 2013 Economic Outlook. According to the GSE, residential investment--once a drag on the economy--has contributed positively or neutrally to the nation's economic growth for the past seven quarters. The GSE expects this trend to continue this year.

The economy added 88,000 jobs in March--the weakest showing since last June--but the unemployment rate dropped to 7.6.percent, its lowest level since December 2008, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday. Economists had forecast payrolls would grow by 200,000, and that the unemployment rate would remain at 7.7 percent.

Last month's uptick in consumer confidence suggests consumers may not be too concerned about pending impacts of fiscal policy, but Fannie Mae predicts they will nonetheless feel some financial tightening over the next few months. Several economic indicators are trending positive right now, but the GSE's March economic forecast warns the pending sequestration and the effects of higher social security taxes may dampen some of the current progress. On the other hand, the GSE continues to see housing as a bright spot in the economy--one that is not likely to darken in the near future.

Personal income rose a solid $143.2 billion or 1.1 percent in February, dwarfing expectations, and spending jumped $77.2 billion, or 0.7 percent, the, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported Friday. The data suggest the personal spending component of Gross Domestic Product remained strong in the first quarter. That income grew faster than spending was a boost to personal savings, which increased to $310.9 billion in February from $262.5 billion in January, up from 2.2 percent of disposable (essentially after-tax) income to 2.6 percent.

One of the most interesting results of poring through economic data reports is that the details often tell a different story than the headline. The recent report on retail sales is a case in point. While the vast majority of commentators were impressed with a strong 1.1 percent month-over-month increase in overall sales, those who scratched the surface were rewarded for their efforts by learning more than half of the month-over-month increase came from an increase in gasoline station sales as prices. In addition, coverage of the recent report on housing permits and starts was dominated by the increase in both permits and starts. A closer look at the permit-starts data revealed another important phenomenon: a shift from single-family to multifamily construction.

With an upbeat assessment of the economy, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged and to continue its program of purchasing agency mortgage backed securities and longer term Treasury securities ""to maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.""

Perhaps the most important piece of economic news in the last few days was not the continued drop in the unemployment rate or the positive blurbs in the Beige Book or even the Dow reaching a new record high, but Thursday's quarterly Flow of Funds report. According to the report for Q4 2012, household assets grew to $79.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, an increase of $1.3 trillion--not too shabby. Household financial assets were up $784 billion to $54.4 billion but home equity (the value of household real estate less loans against that real estate) grew $452.8 billion, the result of two moving parts: real estate values (which increased) and household mortgage liabilities, which dropped.

The sad fact of the budget sequestration being played out in Washington is how avoidable it was. The sadder fact is that however temporary it might prove to be--and that appears from a distance to be more of a wish than a forecast--it will affect real people, and not well. The effects of sequestration go beyond the impact of jobs loss because defense or other contractors are not hired or because federal workers are furloughed. The effects will put even more homeowners at risk of delinquency, or worse, foreclosure, just at a time when the housing sector is recovering.

President Obama unleashed a predictable firestorm when he proposed during the State of the Union address that the minimum wage be increased to $9.00 an hour from the current $7.25. The reactions were expected: conservative economists criticizing the suggestion while progressives either endorsed it outright or noted the proposal was less than the $9.50 minimum wage proposed by then-candidate Obama.

Even with tax hikes and spending cuts creating a significant headwind to the economy, Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group is maintaining its outlook for slow and steady growth in 2013. On the housing front, continued lean inventory and the increase in rate of household formation bode well for homebuilding activity and residential construction employment, the outlook says, giving housing an opportunity to contribute more to economic growth. However, one unknown variable on the supply side is how many underwater borrowers are waiting to list their homes.