Housing Supply
By Mark Lieberman, Five Star Institute Economist | 05/23/2012
New homes sales rose 3.3 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 343,000, the Commerce Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported jointly Wednesday (May 23). Sales for March were revised upward from 328,000 to 332,000. Sales for March were revised upward from 328,000 to 332,000. Economists had expected the report to show a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 335,000 for new home sales in April. New home sales in April were up 8.5 percent from April 2011, the seventh straight month of year-over-year increases.
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By Mark Lieberman, Five Star Institute Economist | 05/16/2012
Housing permits dipped in April for the first time in four months, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported jointly Wednesday but housing starts improved. Both indicators remained far above year-earlier levels. The month-over-month increase in starts in April appeared still larger because of a downward revision to March's report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected permits to drop month-over-month and starts to increase.
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By Esther Cho | 05/15/2012
The housing recovery will come in two phases. First, home prices will rise by just under 1 percent in the second half of 2012. In 2013, prices will rise by 1.5 percent, then go up another 2.5 percent in 2014. For the second phase, home prices will increase 3 to 3.5 percent between 2015 and 2017. These are the predictions from a report released by the Demand Institute, which is jointly operated by The Conference Board and Nielsen. The report, titled The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand, stated investors who buy rental properties will lead phase one of the recovery, as opposed to buyers who purchase properties as their own residence.
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By Esther Cho | 05/15/2012
Nationwide, the number of homes listed for sale has fallen 21 percent from a year ago, according to Pro Teck Valuation Services' May Home Value Forecast. Also, the forecast reported Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) is at 6.3 months, which is the lowest level since 2006. A strong market will have 0 to 5 months of inventory, a balanced market 6 to 10 months, and a soft market will have 11 to 15 months. From 2002 to 2005, when the housing market was booming, the national MRI was at or below 5 months.
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By Mark Lieberman, Five Star Institute Economist | 05/15/2012
Builder confidence jumped five points in in May to 29, its highest level since May 2007, the National Association of Home Builders reported Tuesday. Economists had expected the index to edge up to 26 in May. The month-month increase was the largest since April 2009. The total index in May was up 13 points from May 2011, the strongest year-over-year gain since April 2004. All three components of the index - current sales, sales six months out, and buyer traffic - showed strong increases in May, with buyer traffic and current sales conditions each rising five points while the projection of sales six months ahead increased three points.
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By Carrie Bay | 05/14/2012
It will take 46 months to clear the market's supply of distressed homes, or the shadow inventory, according to estimates from Standard & Poor's Rating Services based on first-quarter 2012 data. While national residential mortgage liquidation rates appeared stable over the first three months of this year, these rates varied widely between local markets. Regional variations in how quickly servicers can clear the backlog of nonperforming loans are primarily due to differences in foreclosure procedures. S&P says its months-to-clear estimate in judicial states is almost 2.5x as long as non-judicial states.
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By Esther Cho | 05/11/2012
Interest rates continue to slide further down alongside the decline in home prices. In addition to these factors improving affordability for homeowners, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) found the amount of income needed to qualify for a mortgage is actually well below the median income in most parts of the U.S. The national median family income was $61,000 in the first quarter. If a buyer wanted to purchase a home at the national median price, he or she would need an annual income of $34,700 if making a 5 percent downpayment. A 20 percent downpayment requires about $29,300.
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By Mark Lieberman, Five Star Institute Economist | 04/24/2012
New homes sales fell 7.1 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 328,000, the steepest percentage decline since February 2011, the Commerce Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported jointly Tuesday. Sales for January were revised upward from 313,000 to 353,000. Economists had expected the report to show a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 318,000 new home sales in March. New home sales in March were up 7.5 percent from March 2011.
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By Esther Cho | 04/23/2012
Inventory is shrinking and traffic for homebuyers seems to be increasing, but according to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey, home prices were down in March. One reason for this, according to the survey, which includes about 2,500 real estate agents, is the high number of distressed properties - short sale properties in particular - on the market. Prices for damaged REO properties saw a 5.7 percent decline in prices between March 2010 and March 2011, according to the survey, while move-in ready REO prices fell 2.5 percent during the same period. Prices on short sales, however, dropped 14.3 percent during the one-year period.
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By Mark Lieberman, Five Star Institute Economist | 04/17/2012
Housing permits surged another 4.5 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 747,000, the highest level since September 2008, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported jointly Tuesday. At the same time though, housing starts fell for the third time in the last four months to the lowest level since last October.
The increase in permits was driven largely by multi-family activity; single family permits fell for the first time since last September.
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