Shadow Inventory
By Krista Franks | 01/20/2012
The long-awaited housing recovery is beginning to blossom, according to industry experts taking a look at recent existing-home sales data.
While admitting home sales are "still very low," the chief economist at Capital Economics says it is clear the housing recovery is now well underway. The evidence: home sales have been on the rise for the past three months, posting a 5 percent increase in December, according to the latest market study released by the National Association of Realtors.
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By Krista Franks | 12/23/2011
The year 2011 is ending on a high note as economists anticipate some positive movement in the housing market. Prices appear to be reaching their trough, visible supply is on the decline, and banks are beginning just slightly to loosen lending standards, according to a fourth-quarter report from Capital Economics. However, the research firm warns these positive signs do not point to an immediate recovery, particularly with housing undervalued by the most it's been since at least 1975.
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By Carrie Bay | 12/21/2011
The number of distressed properties not currently listed on multiple listing services stood at 1.6 million as of October 2011, according to CoreLogic. This shadow inventory is approximately half of the industry's visible inventory, the company says, meaning for every two homes available for sale, there is one home in the "shadows." CoreLogic's latest shadow inventory assessment represents a supply of five months and is down from October 2010, when it stood at 1.9 million units, or 7-months' supply.
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By Carrie Bay | 11/23/2011
That ominous shadow inventory of repossessed and soon-to-be repossessed homes is getting smaller. Standard and Poor's (S&P) has released its third-quarter shadow inventory update. The agency says the volume of distressed assets included in its assessment dropped from $405 billion in the second quarter to $384 billion in the third. This figure has been on a steady decline since mid-2010. At current liquidation rates, S&P says it will take 45 months to work through the industry's shadow inventory.
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By Carrie Bay | 11/14/2011
Estimates of the industry's shadow inventory vary widely, but one thing analysts do agree on is that the overhang is massive and will likely weigh on market dynamics for years to come. Measurements of soon-to-be repossessed and foreclosed homes that have yet to hit the market range from 1.6 million to 8.2 million. Capital Economics' assessment falls in the middle of that range, and the company's analysts say if anything, theirs is probably an underestimate. They put the industry's shadow inventory at 4.3 million homes.
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By Krista Franks | 11/10/2011
Home prices rose 4 percent during the third quarter, according to the latest IAS360 index from Integrated Asset Services. The index also posted a 0.4 percent gain from the beginning of the year and a 0.6 percent gain from the third quarter of last year. "I did a double-take when I saw the numbers," says Paul Sveen, CEO of Integrated Asset Services. He says the market is behaving like it's already hit bottom, but it's likely just the calm before the storm considering the large volume of distressed properties hidden in the shadows.
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By Carrie Bay | 09/27/2011
The industry's shadows are shrinking, according to CoreLogic. Based on the analytics firm's calculations, the residential shadow inventory of unlisted REOs and soon-to-be REOs stood at 1.6 million units as of July 2011. CoreLogic says that tally represents a supply of five months and is down from 1.7 million units in April and 1.9 million units in July of 2010. The company says the decline is driven by a pace of new delinquencies that is slower than the disposition pace of distressed assets.
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By Carrie Bay | 08/19/2011
Housing has become an industry afraid of its shadows. That shadow inventory of repossessed and soon-to-be repossessed homes has professionals from every side of the business worried about the impact such a sizeable volume of distress will have on property values and overall market fundamentals. But according to Standard & Poor's, the obscurity hiding in the corner is getting smaller. The agency's current estimate of time-to-clear the market's distress is 47 months. That represents a five-month decline from its first-quarter estimate.
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By Carrie Bay | 07/26/2011
Median prices for REO and short sale transactions continue to decline. A new report from CoreLogic shows distressed home prices at the national level have fallen 10 percent since 2009. The company notes, however, that new foreclosure auction filings have dropped significantly since last October, and the industry's shadow inventory has been trimmed. With these two distressed sale drivers narrowing, CoreLogic says such transactions will likely begin to decline late in 2011 and into 2012.
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By Krista Franks | 07/05/2011
Conditions across multiple financial sectors suggest economic stabilization and growth. It's the housing market that's holding back economic recovery, according to the credit bureau Equifax. The company's latest analysis of national credit trends points to shadow inventory and REOs as major mortgage market depressors. Growth in these areas has led to bigger write-offs. Equifax says write-off dollars for home finance in 2010 more than doubled that of 2006 and 2007 combined.
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